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Contributions from
the Column
Studies and reports
International ODA rate is far from its peak value
EU enlargement – an opportunity for European development policy
Energy turning point: efficiency revolution and break-even charges
After the war: what form of government for Iraq?
The small arms problem cannot be solved in isolation
Pro-poor growth to reduce poverty
Foreign investment: democracies preferred?
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[ Panel discussion at ZEF ]
After the war: what form of government for Iraq?
Controversial views on the reconstruction of Iraq emerged in a panel discussion at the Centre for Development Research (ZEF) in Bonn on April 24. Volker Nienhaus, Professor for Development Economy and Economic Policy at the Ruhr University in Bochum, gave a democratic development here little chance as long the client system built on rents from oil sales was not fundamentally reformed. To achieve that, he said, the oil sector must be placed in private ownership – and in fact in share parcels that were as small as possible and distributed to as many shareholders as possible.
Nienhaus was optimistic about the question of Iraq's heavy debt. Of its current total debt of US$ 400 billion, about US$ 320 billion was accounted for by reparations claims by the US government and Kuwait. But only 40 per cent of that sum was recognised by the United Nations. Nienhaus said he therefore assumed recognised debt of about US$ 200 billion. Taking into consideration that Iraq had roughly the same economic potential as Saudi Arabia, the debt question was less highly charged than was often portrayed.
Jochen Hippler, of the Institute for Peace and Development (INEF), depicted the political situation in Iraq as a dilemma. Because the dictatorship had destroyed society and politics going beyond affiliations and links defined by religion and ethnicity, these must serve as the "starting point for building up society". However, that involved the risk that power in Iraq would not be distributed according to democratic principles, but according to ethnic and religious criteria. Eva Savelsberg, chairwoman of the Berlin Society for the Promotion of Kurdology, then also made clear that the de facto independence of the Iraqi Kurds could not be taken back from them without further ado. She said an at least administrative partition of Iraq in three federal states – a central Iraqi one, a Kurdish-dominated one in the North and a Shia-dominated one in the South – was unavoidable. The new Iraqi state would inevitably be characterised by the ethnic and religious identities of its people. (uke)
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