[ Early warning systems ]

Even the best technology
is useless without social action

[ By Dirk Asendorpf and Christina Kamlage ]


The amount of damage done by natural disasters is increasing worldwide. Insurance companies have never had to pay out as much as they did in 2005. And on the victims’ side, the gulf between rich and poor countries keeps widening. While a catastrophe in an industrialised country claims an average of 22 lives, the figure in developing countries is 1,052. That difference need not exist. “Modern technology makes a great deal possible,” says Peter Zeil, a geoinformatics expert at Salzburg University. He is involved in setting up early warning systems in several developing countries. “Often, the problem lies in communicating the information and translating it into action.” It is not technological problems that stand in the way of effective early warning; it is inadequate planning and structural disorganisation. This is where the capacity-building programmes of InWEnt are designed to help.

Many natural events become catastrophes because people on the ground are not sufficiently prepared. Hurricane winds cause little damage in an exclusive residential area; a shantytown in their path can be completely obliterated. And where agriculture has been crippled by war, a drought can turn easily into a human disaster. Experts see four distinct elements in an effective early warning system.

The first requirement is detailed knowledge of the hazard exposure of the region or area in question. How high was the highest tide of the century? On what slopes do landslides pose a threat? Geoinformation systems record that sort of information and make analysis possible. The second step is to set up appropriate monitoring systems. These can be based on simple gauges or high-tech seismological sensors. What is important is not just that they measure the right parameters but that they provide fast and timely warning of hazards. The consequences of an earthquake, for instance, can be mitigated if gas and electricity supplies are immediately cut off. “Early warning should work like a traffic light switching from green to amber,” Zeil notes.

The third aspect is preparation. Do warnings actually reach the relevant agencies and the people affected? Do they know what to do? A prematurely ordered evacuation can do more damage than a natural event, which turns out to have a weaker impact than anticipated.

None of this works without the fourth requirement: appropriate institutions and regulations. Political support is needed here, as is training, capacity-building and coaching. As a consequence, personnel and organisational development is a priority area of German development policy on early warning systems. Better cooperation with the media is also sought. Before, during and after a catastrophe, the media play a crucial role in getting information to the community.

The Indian Ocean tsunami that struck in December 2004 focused attention sharply on the need for global early warning systems. But seaquakes are just one kind of natural hazard that needs to be monitored. Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and floods are of equal significance. Germany supports the creation of early warning systems in Central America, Afghanistan and Southern Africa as part of its programme for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. The activities are embedded in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR).
However, not even the best early warning system guarantees safety. Hurricane Katrina showed that last year when it unleashed what was by far the most expensive natural disaster the world has ever seen. Estimated damage bill: $ 200 billion. That happened in spite of the hazards having been known. Three years ago, the scenario was described in detail in a lcoal daily, the Times Picayune: “The question is not whether this will happen, but when.” Forecasts that it would happen on the morning of August 29 were circulating days before the event. Even so, the evacuation ended in chaos, the dikes were breached. Emergency plans and better coastal defences had been discussed but there had not been enough funds available to make them reality.